after the war in Iraq
by Giuseppe Brindisi
November 15 th 2005
For a greater clarity of communication the conventional meaning renders explicit him attributed to the knots of the language of the writing:
- time strategic frame: temporal window opened on the strategic events of the period of analyzed time;
- Strategic trend: tendency of the events political international inclusive conflicts and wars;
- strategic entity: aggregation partner-politics able to produce and to engrave on strategic situations;
- correlations among strategic entity: political relationships, alliances, conflicts, relationships among the entities;
- Strategic events: facts of regional and planetary political importance;
The method of analysis develops him through, the choice of the time strategic frame; the individualization of the strategic entities; of the strategic events; of the correlations among strategic entity and events; of the flows strategic trends. They will be able, in such way, to trace the possible lines of development of the same trends.
The time select frame goes from the fall of the wall in Berlin to our days.
Considered strategic entities are: USA, Europe, Countries of the east of the dissolved Soviet Empire, Russia, China, Israel, Palestine, India, World moderate and thread-American Arab, Arabic World integralista.
Salient strategic events: the fall of the wall in Berlin, the endemic Arab-palestinese-Israeli conflict, the course of the budgets of the Defense in the world, the crescendo of the terrorist attacks the widening of the Nato, the attack in America of September 11 th 2001, the wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq.
USA, after the fall of the wall in Berlin they rise to planetary and absolute unique power.
The military, economic, financial, scientific and technological potential overhangs that after all of the world (see him I test on USA, absolute power). The last military budget draws near to the 400 million of dollars - toward a million million of the old liras - equal to around the 50% of the world military expense.
The trend of the military tool is in ascent in all the sectors and particularly in the systems of command and control, of the intelligent weapons, of the aerial robotizzatis. The planetary dominion is indisputable in earth, in sea and in the space.
Europe stenta to take the road of the political union and defense. A predominantly economic and commercial entity and his/her scientific and technological dependence it stays from USA it is condizionante (you see. Defended European: six characters looking for author).
The countries of oriental Europe, already belonging to disappears him/it Pact in Warsaw, son almost all transited in the Nato. Germany of the east meets in his/her/their mother country the fall of the wall in Berlin shortly after. You/they have increased the expense in armaments for the consequential obligations in the passage in the Nato.
Russia, notably militarily depotenziata develops a politics western European, and it sets out to enter the Nato with the weight of his/her own strategic and tactical nuclear armament that, even if reduced in number of devices and pitchers, it is always also according to after USA.
China, of communist name but of capitalistic fact, an exceptional industrial economic growth lives. It keeps on strengthening his/her own strengths armed that, apart the nuclear ability to average distance, is to a level of regional power and away from to worry to brief term USA. It increases his/her potential dangerousness. With the entrance of Russia, the Nato will reach its confinements and the territorial contrasts with Russia, you/they could whet him.
The Nato would be able to decidedly face now the Chinese threat with the nuclear potential favorable to USA and Russia able to effect a hypothetical strategy of the “first hit” against the Chinese nuclear power not yet fit to answer with the “according to hit”, sees the actual nuclear ability. The attainment, aside Chinese, of the potentiality of the “according to hit” it would create a dangerous situation for the situation of stalemate in conventional field. China doesn't have hope of conventional offensive success and as many Russia or the Nato.
India, with over a million of inhabitants, it is a demografic giant but military dwarf, if the regional nuclear ability is excepted. To it Pakistan is contrasted, historical enemy, endowed with nuclear weapons with vectors to middle ray. The danger of regional conflict is elevated and only USA can moderate the contrasts among two States.
- Israel is a nuclear, and more allied regional power, it is the prolongation of the power USA in the Middle East. The Israeli politics is the key of time of the middle-oriental instability. World peace is subordinate to the smussamento of the Israeli velleities on the territories busy palestinesi with the Arab-Israeli wars. From the success of the known initiative as “road map” the attenuation of the terrorist virulence depends in the area middle-orietale.
For now the movement of the trend is side, it would be said. The projection would give an inversion of positive trend with the conclusive exercise of the power political possible and convenient USA after the predictable definitive success in Iraq and in Afghanistan. The delay of the success of USA in central Asia negatively engraves on the peace in the middle east.
The Arabic Countries constitute two entities: the thread-American, with presence to his/her inside of a component integralista Islamic terrorist or for-terrorism and I spin her/it Islamic integralista facente head to Iran, one of States scoundrel together with Korea of the North and to ex-Iraq of Saddam Hussein. Palestine is a case to if stante. Entity not statuale but geo-ethnic-religious looking for recognition of State with political and territorial unity. It is the origin of the terrorist phenomenon from whose development lasts at least forty coincident years with the existence of the State of Israel.
Japan, industrial and economic giant without real possibilities to engrave on the planetary strategic scene. It is trusted partner of USA and, of fact, western in all of his/her aspects. Later almost 60 years, Japanese armed strengths take part to military operations to the foreign countries with the dispatch of a contingent in Iraq. It constitutes, potentially, the second Asian power for importance in China. Now his/her own military power is less less than of regional level.
States scoundrel (Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Korea of the North, Sudan, Cuba)
The definition was coined by the Department of is American in 1993, but you/he/she has been exhumed by the president George W. Bush after September 11.
Syria, Libya, Sudan, Cuba, Iran, Iraq and Korea of the north are the seven countries put to the index from USA, but only the last three would constitute the nucleus of the support to the terrorism.
Korea of the North and Iran deserve to be mentioned.
The before, hostile of USA from the war of the years 50, continuous fearless to stand up himself/herself/themselves on dictatorial and dynastic communist regime. It starves, he/she asks in meal the western crazy cows destined to the destruction but communist and enemy of USA and the west it stays.
Bush has included her in the list of States scoundrel for his/her politics for-terrorism and anti USA and the velleity to equip him with nuclear armaments. Those people that donchisciottescamentes defend her/it from the angers of Bush forget or, they pretend better not to remember, that unlike other States nuclear, Korea is to regime dictatorial absolutist and antidemocratic. The proliferation of the nuclear armaments for regimes of the kind is real danger for the humanity.
Iran is regime country teocratico and Islamic integralista, viscerally hostile dell?america. The irrationality of this regime favors above all the development of the terrorism with ill-omened influences on the young incentrates on the transcendental exaltation of the terrorist suicide-homicide.
The lines of strategic development of the last fifteen years (1989 fall of the wall in Berlin) I am so sintetizzabili:
USA have passed by the politics of the communist containment to that of maintenance of the peace in the World, acting from arm armed with the U.N. before and, in the last conflict in Iraq, from autonomous political and war protagonist, apart the direct support of UK. The attack to the heart of America of September 11 has started the preventive war against the terrorist hostile potential.
After the War in Afghanistan and the defenestration of the regime talebano, USA have regulated the accounts with the Dictator of Iraq Saddam Hussein, hostile of USA and financier of the terrorist nets.
The trend certainly extends to widen the safety perimeter of USA up to Central Asia, where the bases USA will allow a more effective military and political control of the Middle East.
The projection of the trend goes toward the elimination of the regimes of States Scoundrel. The course of the politics USA points out the determination of America to continue on the street of the New World Order with or without the active share of Europe and the U.N..
The power of USA is such that it will recommend to the republican or democratic Administrations, to follow the Doctrine of Bush on the opportunity, necessity of the preventive war, of the installation of a New World Order (NWO), the elimination of the danger of the nuclear proliferation and the weapons of destruction of mass.
For the middle-long term, USA will strengthen the defense antimissile of their territory with the rivitalizzato it programs of the “spatial shield”, they will strengthen their military tool, kind for the aspects of the command and control, of the intelligent weapons, of the strategic mobility and tactic. Neither it will decrease the maritime and aeronautical-spatial power in forecast of evolution of the strategic threat.
Europe will continue in the side movement without resolving the inside contrasts risalenti to the pretensions of political direction of France.
Israel not rinuncerà to the safety plans in realization (construction of the wall of separation with the palestinesis and expansion of the Armed Strengths), kind up to when the war to the terrorism undertaken from USA, won't definitely get further the deadly danger of the terrorist slaughters.
Russia will continue in the run of European integration contributing to realize the dream of De Gaulle: Europe from the Atlantic to the Uralis.
China will keep on pursuing the street of the aware economic-commercial success that the politics of nuclear power of first level would inevitably bring her/it to the clash with USA and with the west.
The trend consolidates him in the objective of regional defensive military politics. An inversion of trend would involve the run to the nuclear armaments, missile naval and airplanes. There are not indicative in such sense, neither the oriental colossus has the economic-financial resources to start the program of necessary armament to oppose the American power.
States scoundrel, after the war in Iraq, you/they are manifesting a rectification of the their political antiamericana showing a discreet availability toward the approach USA that, almost certainly, not rinuncerà to replace the actual regimes with governments on democratic bases and to politics antiterrorism and anti nuclear proliferation, bioloica and chemistry.
In synthesis the planet goes toward the so-called New World Order with the unknown ones of the destiny of the U.N. and the role of Europe